Long-Term Thinking

  1. Focus on what will remain unchanged in the future
  2. Resilience & Optionality to become Anti-Fragile
    1. Thrift
    2. Operational Excellence
  3. Bibliography
    1. Society
    2. Self-Mastery
    3. Skin in the Game
    4. Humility and Honesty
    5. Have Fun
  4. Geopolitical
  5. Technology
    1. Hardware
    2. ARM & RISC-V
    3. AI
    4. Software
    5. Kubernetes
    6. Serverless
    7. WebAssembly
    8. Web3
    9. Quantum
  6. Gig Economy
    1. White Collar
    2. Service Worker
    3. Hollywood Model
    4. Blue Collar
  7. Economic / Geo-Political
  8. APIs & Cloud
    1. Hardware
    2. Cloud Infrastructure
    3. Hybrid
    4. Vertical Clouds
    5. DevOps & Cloud Management
    6. Cloud Security
    7. AI & Big Data
    8. 5G Infrastructure
    9. Edge Computing
    10. API Companies

It is really hard to think long term about things. In business, and life it is so easy to think short term. A single quarter, a year. It is easy to lose sight of the land we are trying to reach when we are trying to stay above the waves. Doing what we need to get there requires the discipline to live in that future and bring everyone to that world view. It requires being misunderstood for a long time until you can show the world what you mean. It is okay to make mistakes and take the wrong trails while we are getting to that goal.

To build the future we must think Long-Term. Everything we do must be steppingstones and we must think decades into the future and work backwards. We need to implement the projects and experiments that will lead to our Vision being fulfilled. To do this we must constantly course correct, remove impediments in our way, and iterate and never be content with what we have. Always lay the seeds for tomorrow, but make sure the seeds you laid yesterday are bearing fruit and figure out why the ones that didn’t, didn’t. We need to simplify our Vision into smaller projects. Whether we tackle business or politics we need to stay below the waves thinking and working for the long-term while there maybe waves and storms above water.

And like a forest fire that clears out the underbrush so that the strong trees get more nutrients, we need to regularly clear out the underbrush to give more nutrients to our stronger trees. We will constantly evaluate what we are focused on and let loose those projects that may be better run independently, by others, or are no longer needed at all. We must learn to be objective and be okay with cutting ties with those things that don’t fulfill our Vision.

Life is evolution and we need to evolve with the tides. Our Vision requires a marathon not a sprint, we may win some and lose some but never lose sight of if we are winning the Infinite Game. We must improve 1% everyday with small constant changes, we must apply Creative Destruction to ourselves and our work, we must cast the first stone against ourselves and obsolete ourselves first. We must never be comfortable with what we have, it can all be ripped away, so we are constantly willing to sacrifice for better and always be willing to improve. We Must Evolve or Die.

Building for the Long-Term requires sacrifice and stamina and a fair bit of the Marshmallow Test. Not everything will be fun and to get to our Vision a lot of it is going to be shoveling shit. Things will be boring, monotonous and uninspiring but nothing great has been done in the world without hard work. It is important to get through things and resist changing things drastically when boredom sets. We need to find ways to chip away at the same thing over and over and get to where we need to go while addressing the monotony. For us to do this, we need to create routines, processes and automations that we will use to get us through things when things get tedious.

Consider the externalities when making decisions and performing action. We cannot stop ourselves from creating negative externalities, but we must seek for those short term pains to create long-term gains to Advance Humanity. Figure out how to reduce the negative externality and seek to remove it quickly.

We need to move at a steady measured pace while preventing burnout. We will implement work processes such as Scrum and Kanban to work at a measured pace with continuous improvement to create change. We will do Agile right not as a measure of people, but as a measure of the tasks that need to be done. Think Slow is smooth, smooth is fast.

Our goal as a company is to reduce dopamine and cortisol and increase serotonin and oxytocin. No, we aren’t going to drug people. Dopamine and cortisol are products of short-term thinking, the highs of big risky wins, and the lows of heavy stress. Sure, they are exciting, but they are not good ways to build a long-term sustainable business. So our company in a sense has to be boring, it has to focus on long-term sustainable growth not huge risky spikes that may not last. We will optimize for serotonin and oxytocin; both are long-term thinking chemicals that the brain secretes for the wellness of the individual. We optimize for these.

Consider value over cost. If the value you are receiving is higher than the cost of using it or if it will lead to greater profit then that is value.

There are no easy hacks in life work smart and work hard.

Focus on what will remain unchanged in the future

What are things that won’t change in ten years? What are the things that will remain true then, as they are true now? It is hard to predict the future, but there will be certain principles that won’t change so those need to be optimized

Resilience & Optionality to become Anti-Fragile

“If you can dodge a wrench you can dodge a ball.”

Dodgeball, A True Underdog Story

A company needs to be resilient

We need to play the Infinite Game not the Finite Game. Growth for its own sake, moonshots, and other ideas are completely useless unless we believe them to Advance Humanity for the better. Every move we make we must consider not the money as the key result but how we will move Humanity to New Heights. We must advance the game from a different form of accounting which is how many potential people can we help with every move we make? How can we Deploy Ideas Faster? How can we democratize new technology? How can we help more people?

Disruption, or Disruptive Innovations, for disruption’s sake doesn’t matter. We have to be that a company has to lose for us to win. We can all grow the pie together. Disruption only considers breaking but it does not consider the creation.

An organization is here to provide value to the world, society and the people it takes care of. It is not to optimize profits for the shareholders. Our paradigm is to say that Milton Friedman is the cause of the ills of society that we are now facing. Short term thinking and optimizing shareholder value has ruined the earth and we must put an end to the baloney of his theories. We will not optimize for shareholder value, we will optimize for humanity and taking care of our people. We will not optimize for short term profits instead we will look to create long term value for society and as a side effect make money.

We must thrive in chaos and uncertainty. The only thing we are certain of is change, change breeds opportunities and we must learn to capitalize on those opportunities. We must build the company to be Anti-Fragile. It needs to survive whether things are going well, or things are going poorly in the world. We need to think hard about how we do things and always prepare for the worst. Chaos should not kill us; chaos empowers and emboldens us. We are masters of Chaos and use it for our benefit. Remember Sun Tzu, “Lure with bait, strike with chaos.” To achieve success in chaos we must kill things that don’t provide value. Don’t keep something to turn the wheels we must be nimble and be able to turn on a dime.

We do not strive for high risk, we take calculated bets that help us advance our game, playing at tables that give us a clear advantage. Attacking a large defense is pointless and wastes resources, find the weakness in the defenses and take aim there. This means 1% everyday will lead to revolutionary changes overtime. But we must start with First Principle to figure out where we even start playing. Figure out the game where the rules are in your favor, this is the First Principle decision. Figure out the 1-2 things that will give you 80% of the benefit and move to address that leading you to become the big fish in the small pond, expand from there.

Don’t be constrained by societal norms. Society and Culture are hackable, and we need to understand the Power Structures that are in play and how they advantage or disadvantage us. If we understand the Power Structures, we can Define the Rules of the Game or Play a Game where we always have an advantage.

If direct competition against them is impossible then change tables, so that you play has the advantage. To build a world where we fill our Vision of “Ideas Deployed Faster to Advance Humanity”, we must break and remold the old rules to favor us. We dance to our own tune, however, to do so we need to be disciplined. We must have self-mastery to make the rules for others and we must always consider the moral and ethical questions over the rules we change. The rules we change must be better for the world over the long run even if short term it is painful, and we must be disciplined to weather the short term ramifications.

Process

|chaos————|——-|efficiency

There needs to be median for innovation when it comes to process. We can’t be 100% efficient we need time to be creative and have ways about thinking in problems in new ways. If we are 100% efficient we stagnate with any new ideas. This can’t happen in an innovative company.

Innovation needs a bit of chaos. It doesn’t grow by having complete order, but it doesn’t work completely in total chaos either. Innovation needs to fulfill a need and the wat to have that is to be somewhere in the realm of chaos and efficiency. We need slack in the system to come up with new ideas.

Thrift

Make money run a long way. The best way to do this is to understand why you are doing something and what it will return and itmeans having financial intelligence to do the tasks necessary to get to our mission while figuring out where you are not going to be spending money.

Curate

Learn to curate. There are things which are commodities and there are things which have high value. The goal is to focus on the high value tasks where you can have a genuine advantage. Everything else don’t do or do it as a hobby not as a business. The primary goal of a business is to say no to a 99 things and focus on the 1 thing that gives a genuine advantage.

Figure out your strengths and weaknesses and really focus on your strengths. Externalize you weaknesses to those whose strengths are your weakness.

Operational Excellence

If evolution is the name of the game then capital is food for growth.

To Advance Humanity we cannot be sitting around accumulating cash. We need to put 90% of our Cash Flow into Growth. It is by making a lot of small bets in many opportunities that we can figure out what the best way to get to our Vision. Once we make a bet we will use Porter’s Competitive Strategy and Deming’s Continuous Improvement to evolve and optimize. We must understand a bet’s long-term outcome and that any bet we take may change overtime. We need to be able to step away if things are not working after a sufficient time period. We must not fall victim to the sunk cost fallacy.

Don’t be afraid to kill the Goose that once laid the Golden Egg. Eventually, it will die, or a competitor will commoditize it. We need to learn to kill ourselves to reinvent ourselves. Reinvent when  something is broken or declining in function. If something is subpar, fix it! Every team needs to own what they have and make it better constantly. Sometimes the short-term investment in changing a standard can be painful, but the long-term benefit of reinventing can immense.

Grow without making the mistakes of the past. Growing while making former mistakes is a good way to fail from the pressure of failing to address past mistakes. Build and run things and ensure that they run the same tomorrow, by ensuring that we have a solid infrastructure that we build everything upon.

Operational Excellence means stability but it does not mean stagnation it means building on layers and building on a set of primitives each piece doing its part and doing it well such that the entirety can grow. It means constantly improving our performance and delivery cadence such that we delight our customers with how reliable and good we are.

Processes & Systems

We need to achieve operational excellence in everything we do. This means we need to figure out our success and mistakes and fix them. However, quality is in conflict with innovation so we must be somewhere in between Chaos and Process.

Build Infrastructure

Everything we do is infrastructure and platforms. People will build off what we do. We must ensure that we support these things that are built by ensuring stability for those that build off us. Ensure that we can run things if possible forever and constantly improve those things as well so if we have customers we can maintain them. If we can’t we must try the best to migrate them to the new technology.

Quality

The only way to reduce cost is to focus on quality rather than on cost. By improving quality and standardizing we reduce the chance of error. By constantly improving we can make things better overtime reducing our overhead. Furthermore, to make

Bibliography

An organization is not, like an animal, an end in itself, and successful by the mere act of perpetuating the species. An organization is an organ of society and fulfills itself by the contribution it makes to the outside environment. And yet the bigger and apparently more successful an organization gets to be, the more will inside events tend to engage the interests, the energies, and the abilities of the executive to the exclusion of his real tasks and his real effectiveness in the outside.

Effective Executive

Society

  1. Liberty. A society that doesn’t value liberty risks forgeting truth. Truth can only exist insofar as there is liberty. We need a strong justice system that judges right and wrong with the right incentives to ensure liberty and ensures that people whatever belief they have are protected for persecution.
  2. Education. A population that is educated to think critically is needed to solve our hard difficult problems.
  3. Infrastructure. We need a common evolving and dynamic infrastructure that meets new needs of a society.
  4. Healthcare. We need to ensure the health of the populance to ensure that they can be economically stable.
  5. Basic Science. The foundations of science need to be funded so we can understand our universe and humanity’s place within it.
  6. Defense. Defending the population and facing the evolving changes of geopolitics.

We aspire for the betterment of humanity. We do the work and protect those within our Realm of Influence. We work on hard problems because they are more meaningful than easy problems. We don’t aspire for glory, but we want meaningful lives. We do the right thing, even when the right thing is hard. We take care of others, even if we must sacrifice in the process.

Our behavior should be toward the betterment of our Team and the attainment of our Vision. As a team we need to not overindulge, we do more with less, we get our hands dirty no matter whom, we do not do complex things for which we do not understand the second and third order effects, we do not become spend-thrifts, and we do not flaunt what we have. As individuals we hold ourselves to high standards, we aspire to learn more, we take care our minds and bodies, and we take care of our friends, family and community. We must master all aspects of life and aspire higher.

We need to hold each other to high standards. We need to ensure that the cause we fight for is not limited by the low standards of the group. If we are not living to our full potential we are wasting our lives. We will strive to be experts in that we choose to act, but always with high standards.

Self-Mastery

Every Person should attain Self-Mastery. The Spartans had their flaws but within their group they held to high standards, every citizen was considered an equal to the other including the King, everyone went through the same training including women, everyone lead an austere life, and they had a great wit. When it came to performance they performed as one unit.

Our highest ideal is the Advancement of Humanity. Everything we do must be for this cause. We are trying to make humanity better and if that means in the short term humanity hates us, or rebels against us, hold true if you think in the long-term it is actually in its benefit.

We will learn to be masters of ourselves, we will take care of our health, our family and friends, and our community. To do that we must practice high control over ourselves, our behaviors, our actions. We must learn to live fulfilling lives past our work and learn to work together with others. We must hold ourselves to Extremely High Standards and understand that we won’t get there on Day 1 but will work day by day to get there.

We will take Feedback and Reflect on ourselves. We need to understand where we are where we are in the journey and where we need to go. This means we need to reflect and think deeply about our own lives frequently.

Living by these Principles will be hard. It maybe easier to not follow them and take the shortcut. It maybe easier to put people second, it maybe easier to think short-term and it maybe better to think profit before customer. If we sell out our values we are just following the waves of the ocean. For what we are doing we need to hold these principles true.

Don’t sit by the sidelines expecting to gain the upside without doing work, and don’t expect someone else to take the fall of the downside. Have Skin in the Game and acknowledge that the ups and down are as much yours as anyone else. When taking action fear is natural. If we didn’t have fear we wouldn’t be here, it allowed outs species to survive. Our amygdala, reptile brain, is a powerful part of who we are. It pushes us to a Fight or Flight response and pushes us away from danger. So when you want to act and have fear of action because of the fear of failure, reprimand, etc. know that it is normal. However, fear is a product of the unknown. If we make the unknown, known we lessen our fear and the best way to do what we do is to push past the fear. We need to action despite our fears in the moment. To work during times of volatility and fear we must stay calm, we must stay mindful of our Vision, and we must act with force.

The goal of a Sheepdog is to explain Why to others. We crave meaning behind the actions that we undertake and that means explaining everything we have.

Skin in the Game

“Spartans do not ask how many are the enemy but where are they.” -Plutarch

We have Skin in the Game. We take the upside and we take the downside of our actions. We do not blame others if we screw up. We put ourselves out there even if it frightens us and even if it makes us look like fools. We need to play the Infinite Game and that means looking like fools in the moment so we can go to where we want to. We work as a team so we take care of each other but we must acknowledge that.

We drive Ownership of what we have influence over even if no one tells us to. We will be proactive instead of reactive.

Be able to move forward even when you are scared.

If something is wrong speak up.

Constantinople fell because someone left the gate open. Don’t be the person who left it open speak up if something is off or you don’t believe. Get to the bottom of the reason we should be moving a certain way.

Don’t believe that the world will be made for you. If you don’t take action no one else will. It is better to do the tasks to change the world to your liking than to complain that the world is unfair. You have to take the action to move the world. You can’t assume that the world will be made for you. Take ownership to make the world you want.

Humility and Honesty

We must practice humility and austerity. We must have self-control and think really hard before spending a lot of money. We must work to do more with less and always be humbled with what we have. Never believe that we deserve something, always believe that anything we do can be ripped away at any moment. Understand, that that the mindful journey that we are undertaking is much more important than the destination. Enjoy the journey, help others enjoy the journey, enjoy the struggle through the journey. Remember we are all Sisyphus pushing that rock up the mountain, work really hard to push that rock up because at the end of the day it is the struggle that we undertook that makes us better.

The only way you can know how to live is to know how you wish to die. Remember and consider it frequently. What is it that you wish you will have done? What is it that you want as a fulfilling life? What do you wish you are doing less? All of these play into what you will do. You need to know how you want to die so you know what is truly important. We are all given finite time to live and it is important to consider and really focus on how we will use that time. This means we need to consider opportunity costs. What does the end Vision look like and what is the next high value opportunity you are skipping by doing the task at hand. Think also in terms of second and third order effects.

Time is ever fleeting, and we must manage it like the most important resource it is. We must strive everyday to find two hours of Deep Uninterrupted Work, to move the puck forward. We must use this time wisely to get the hard things done and protect this time. This is what will enable us to progress toward our Vision. We want to reduce context switching, and we want to reduce interruptions. Context switching and multi-tasking creates more waste and loss of time than single-minded focus on a single task. We must do this from the individual level to the company wide OKRs. We must have a single clear goal at a time and everything and everyone must contribute to this single goal. We must strive hard to reduce variability, and push everyone to use their time towards the one goal and aiming in the same direction.

  • Check your Ego
  • We are small compared to the vastness of the universe. What we have is each other and the people we help, so don’t go tooting your horn.

Have Fun

Life is too short to be serious. So have fun. Laugh a lot and don’t take yourself too seriously. We are all making it up as we go along and none of what we do really matters. The only thing that matters is helping other people and being happy and being content while achieving that. Also don’t forget to laugh.

By not taking yourself so seriously you make it easier for yourself to grow

Macros, Trends & Constants

With everything happening in the world at this particular moment: the pandemic, the political unrest, mass unemployment, etc. to know what to expect in 5 years would be a fool’s errand. We may all be dead, America could be a failed state, China may become the sole superpower. Or it can be a great boon for a “New Deal” policy, a resurgence of the political left, and a new wave pushing to fight socio-economic and racial inequality.

I have extraordinary optimism for the future and choose to think the latter is the more likely output. Creation can happen from the messiness of destruction. Life, after all, couldn’t exist on earth with that many stages of destruction and turmoil caused by the Big Bang. My goal is to build the future to create a world that is better tomorrow than it is today. 

The fight against Climate Change and the permeation of technology into all parts of life as 5G and Edge Computing roll out will be the two significant changes that will happen in the next five years. In that regard, I wanted to write some clear specific goals as to where I want opsZero to be in 2025 and where we will spend the entirety of our time and energy.

There are potentially hundreds of different ideas we can try because they are too small for the big players but can still generate an immense amount of revenue and value. However, we do not have the time to do this. We cannot try every idea as there just isn’t enough time. However, we don’t need to do every idea. Our goal in the next five years is to bring Operational Excellence to everyone. We help others be more effective by bringing their ideas to market faster.

In essence, we have two plays:

  • Help launch Climate Change businesses and make climate entrepreneurs more successful
  • Help bring Operational Excellence to those businesses

Hopefully, this focus on a few things will allow us to say no to things.

Help Launch Businesses to Solve Climate Change

Climate change is going to be a significant issue that governments will be spending money on to restart the economy post-pandemic. It is the only way to create an economic boost and bring a lot of people back to work. While the economic turmoil as I am writing this is awful, this government investment is a silver lining. Because of the pandemic, many people are moving rural. These people will push local governments to be more active in building out and promoting green infrastructure. And because of this migration, there may be a lot of companies that will start whose objective is to help address the Climate Crisis.

A lot of climate change mitigation involves putting together software and a business model to deploy new ideas quickly. We need to be able to help launch new ideas and try them out in days, not weeks, not months. Days! Helping start new Climate Change businesses is the number one priority for opsZero. We need to help launch and bring Operational Excellence to Climate Change companies. If we don’t address Climate Change, there may not be humans and a market to matter.

Key Results:

  • Help launch 1000 startups working in the climate change space, locally and internationally.
  • Partner with 20-30 different institutes to bring ideas to market quickly.

Operational Excellence via Code, Cloud, and Data

Secondly, the Cloud, 5G, Edge Computing, and NoCode solutions are going to transform the world. Companies will need help transitioning to this world, and we will help companies use these technologies to attain Operation Excellence. By creating Operational Excellence, we can mitigate a lot of waste that happens at companies. By focusing our energy on helping Climate Change companies, we can help them fight against legacy polluting industries.

We must work on all the business logic layers that make the business more efficient if that solution involves the Cloud, Code, or Data. However, we will not work on design, UX, or other things that include frontend technologies. We will either use third party tools or providers for those.

Key Results:

  • Setup a Crowd of 5,000 people who we can send work to and get tasks done within a day or two for most projects.
  • $5 million in revenue a year.

https://miro.com/app/board/o9J_ksIcRSg=/?invite_link_id=470341896944

Our Mission is to build Climate Change solutions. Our expertise is computing and investing. We take the current macros of the world and apply our capabilities to build solutions.

There are a bunch of related advances that are happening at the same time which constitute Industry 4.0. A subset of these are what are called the API Economy. These forces I believe will lead to the expansion of computing and the Cloud. Some of the changes are:

  • API & Cloud
  • 5G
  • Gig Economy
  • Carbon Neutral Energy
  • Smart Contracts

Second, as the war on terror ends with the withdrawal from Afghanistan we are bracing for a geopolitical conflict with China and Russia. In most ways America is dependent on China and Taiwan a country that China has claimed as its own.This will result in having to pick companies that are geopolitically safe but we will have to understand that if Taiwan is attacked most companies on this list are going to be completely screwed.

Geopolitical

Further work is heavily tied with education and healthcare so these two will need to go through a revolution to make the future of work possible. However, I do see the trends changing for these arenas as the massive looming student debt crisis as well as the international money that colleges are addicted to dries up.

Lastly, healthcare will likely also need to go through a revolution. The existing model of tying healthcare to work is no longer viable in a world where we are moving back to freelancing and gig based work. Healthcare cannot be tied to place of work any longer as a lot of progress is being held back by this focus. There needs to be a private option for health that supports new innovations but there also needs to be a public option that will Allow people to innovate or take time off or do other things and not have to worry about losing health coverage. I believe we will get to this point sooner.

  • Long
    • Docusign
    • Box
    • Salesforce
    • Zendesk
  • Maybe
    • Slack
    • Zoom

Technology

We are in a transition period for Hardware, Software and Crypto powering Cloud Computing. The first phase of the Cloud migration, moving from running your own Linux or Windows machine to using a virtual machine on the Cloud is complete. We are in the middle of a transition in regards to technology.

Hardware

ARM & RISC-V

AI

Software

Kubernetes

As companies want to get more usage of their hardware they are moving to Kubernetes. Most Cloud Infrastructure companies support Kubernetes so I see a major migration to it for existing code since it makes it easier and more cost-effective to reduce costs. Further, Kubernetes prevents lockin so a lot of companies even if they are using AWS, Microsoft, or Google are all using Kubernetes to actually run their code.

Serverless

Soon we will be using Serverless technologies like AWS Lambda, Google Firebase, Azure Functions, etc. With coding schools and the proliferation of coders, a majority don’t know anything about running servers, and most companies just want their coders to stop dicking around and solve business problems. I think this will be the next major change in the Cloud. This is also a higher margin business for the infrastructure providers so I see them spending more money to promote here.

WebAssembly

This is another two years in the future but I think WebAssembly will be the primary technology for 5G/edge computing. This may be initially an extension of Serverless but I think WebAssembly is going to run code at the edge. i.e there will be data centers at cell tower sites where having a lot of servers won’t make sense so there will be a need for efficient processing. WebAssembly solves this. You can already play with this technology with Cloudflare Workers where your code runs on 150 data centers around the world.

Web3

Quantum

Gig Economy

White Collar

Software and giving people the basics of creating tooling on their own is on the rise. Tools like Airtable, Notion and even The new version of Excel are moving in this direction. Some additional tools like Bubble, Quay and Zapier give more power to end users. This will likely continue

  • Video
  • 5G
  • Collaborative Tooling with AI built in
  • No-Code Tooling
  • SaaS

Service Worker

  • Linking of Supply Chains to Cloud
  • Ecommerce

Hollywood Model

  • Gigification
  • Crowdfunding
  • API Companies
  • SaaS

Blue Collar

  • 5G
  • AR/VR
  • Self-Driving or Semi-Autonomous Driving
  • Robotics and Drones

Economic / Geo-Political

Whatever country owns 5G will own a significant portion of new innovation in the next 10 years. The reason for this is the following: 5G is 100 gigabits per second or 100 times faster than 4G with lower latency. Think streaming a 4K video while driving in your car with no buffering. This means industrial, medical, and business applications will start showing up which will create a whole new set of innovations.

This is one of the reasons that Huawei was banned in America. We don’t want China to own the hardware infrastructure! However, the biggest pitfall I see is we don’t have chip fabs in America and China is asserting its dominance in the South China Sea meaning if we do go to war with China we may be fucked in terms of us not having chips.

APIs & Cloud

The most interesting aspect of future of work, I believe, is that we are going to move from a human first interaction to a computer first interaction. Currently, a lot of what we do traditionally has a human component at the beginning, some amount of human and computer component in the middle, and a human component in the end. Most industries work this way. This can be considered as humans buying raw resource, people doing work to produce a new resource, humans selling that resource.

I don’t doubt that sales and marketing will continue being important in the future as there are important market differentiation between different parts of the market. However, I do believe that there is going to be a marked change in how inbound and outbound logistics to move away from human interaction to API-first interaction. We can see a bunch of companies that are fulfilling this niche and more companies will likely take more and more of this pie. Example, send an API call to send a blueprint design, manufacture it with humans and robots, call another API to ship the finished manufactured product by having UPS pick it up.

Hardware

  • NVDA
  • TSM
  • AMD -> GPUs

Cloud Infrastructure

These companies are the building blocks of the Cloud. They are infrastructure since their whole role is to abstract the actual hardware to be accessible easily. Amazon and Microsoft own the cloud. Everyone else is secondary and are getting left further and further behind. Everyone, else may fulfill a niche.

  • MSFT
  • AMZN
  • NET

Hybrid

  • IBM

Vertical Clouds

  • CRM

DevOps & Cloud Management

These are the companies that make it easy to manage Cloud Infrastructure. This is the layer that most companies care about since it entails the performance of their applications and developer productivity. These companies have a moat since they work among different Cloud providers. Also, these companies tend to have amazingly high margins. These have developer love at the moment and almost every company I have done for uses one of these companies.

  • DDOG
  • OKTA

Cloud Security

As more and more people move to the Cloud security is a concern. These companies work on ensuring Cloud applications are safe. They watch for hackers, create security parameters, access controls, etc. These will start taking up bigger roles especially among larger companies that are always freaked out about security.

  • CRWD
  • PD

AI & Big Data

AWS, Google, and Microsoft are all working on AI-related software but the primary company to watch for hardware is Nvidia. Nvidia basically owns the AI hardware market. Secondarily, AMD has a good chance since they also make graphics cards but Nvidia is actively producing AI chips. All the cloud providers use Nvidia chips for AI hardware except Google which has a Tensor chip.

  • AI
  • SNOW

5G Infrastructure

5G Infrastructure is still being built out. These are companies that are working on installations, hardware, and other technologies. I think the lower-level stuff is more commodity but I think there will be some value here before they get commoditized.

Edge Computing

The main value for 5G is going to be the companies providing the technology that runs on top of the Edge. These are companies that are able to run code near cell towers as opposed to distant data centers, IoT devices, CDNs.

As we move more and more to 5G the computation has to move to the edge because the speed of light becomes an issue in user interfaces. Right now if we make a request they can go to one of many data centers run by AWS, Microsoft, etc. but that is too slow as we start to use 5G. Computation has to move to the Edge. AWS is starting to push this as well with AWS Wavelength but some of the companies below already have a large infrastructure.

API Companies

  • TWLO
  • PYPL -> Paypal